Rosemeyer Management Group

April 2025 Market Snapshot

April in Review

In April, stock and bond markets experienced one of the most volatile months in recent memory. The month kicked off with President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements that roiled markets. Some of the largest one-day market swings ensued with the CBOE volatility index reaching pandemic-level highs. Markets regained much of these declines over the rest of April as the current administration softened its tone on tariffs. All countries except China were granted 90-day pauses on reciprocal tariffs (aside from a 10% baseline tariff) with multiple tariff exemptions granted on goods like autos and electronics. Both stocks and bonds finished April basically flat with the S&P 500 index down slightly and the aggregate bond market up slightly. The Dow Jones lagged as energy stocks declined on falling oil prices.

Index	1 Month	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-3.08%	-3.92%
Standard & Poor’s 500 Average	-0.68%	-4.92%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap Index)	-2.31%	-11.57%
Total U.S. Stock Market	-0.66%	-5.46%
MSCI ACWI ex USA (Intl. Index)	3.61%	9.03%
Barclay’s U.S. Agg. Bond Index	0.39%	3.18%

Source: Morningstar

Looking Forward: What’s Ahead for Q3 & Beyond

All eyes remain on the trade policy of the United States and China moving forward. While the U.S. is in negotiations with almost all of its global trading partners, it now appears that the U.S. trade escalations on the rest of the world have been focused on China. Investors fear a prolonged conflict could lead to higher prices and potential economic stagnation. In the past week, however, both sides have made comments and actions suggesting they are open to de-escalation and negotiations which has helped eased investor concerns and fueled a market recovery. Investors will also watch the policy stance of the Federal Reserve as they seek to balance potential near-term inflation with economic growth.

Markets are pricing in modest interest rate cuts towards the end of the year to stave off any economic backlash that could ensue from higher tariffs. The tone of Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC meetings minutes will prove to be crucial for equity and bond markets. Consumer economic confidence has fallen to pandemic-level lows, which can be an indicator of a decline in consumption. Interestingly enough, though, declining consumer sentiment has been a fairly reliable predictor of stock market bottoms in recent decades.

On a Personal Note

Joey Schultz proved his running prowess once again this past month when he ran the Drake Road Races half-marathon in Des Moines, IA. He finished 4th place out of over one thousand runners! Joey ran this race in 1 hour and 13 minutes – averaging a mile every five-and-a-half minutes. Joey will look to continue this success when he runs in the Berlin Marathon in Germany this fall. Great job, Joey, and good luck with all of that running!

Rosemeyer Management Group

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management, July 1, 2025 · NASDAQ.com, July 1, 2025

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